China
A rival is not
an enemy.
China is the one country in the whole picture that's neither friend nor enemy — a serious competitor with a different system and its own interests. The mistake that starts wars is calling that an enemy. The job is to compete hard and refuse to invent the fight.
It's a chokehold standoff, not a tank battle.
The trade deficit everyone argues about is actually shrinking, and much of the “drop” is just goods rerouting through other countries. The real contest is over technology, and each side has a grip on the other's throat: America controls the advanced computer chips China needs, and China controls the rare-earth metals America needs.
~90%
of the world's rare-earth metals are refined in China
~70%
of America's rare-earth supply comes from China
Two hands on two throats isn't a war you win. It's a standoff you manage — and the smart move is to slowly loosen your own dependence, not to yank the other hand and trigger the squeeze.
On Taiwan, the silence is the strategy.
Taiwan makes about 90% of the world's most advanced chips, which is why everyone's nervous about it. For forty years America has kept it deliberately unclear whether it would fight to defend the island — and that ambiguity has helped keep the peace. You hear “2027” thrown around as an invasion date; it's a readiness marker someone turned into a prophecy. Most experts flatly reject it.
The discipline
Compete hard. Stay below the line of force.
Loosen the dependence that can be used against us, keep the alliances that are real, leave Taiwan deliberately unclear, and refuse to talk a competitor into being an enemy. Win the competition without manufacturing the war.